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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It often acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or merely the biggest upset.

But the latest competition is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions fading and recent strugglers rising collectively. During an normal year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still