Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
