Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
